08/22/2026

Let’s start with a simple observation: Oscar prediction season is a messy, glorious, often baffling beast. Everyone has a list. Everyone has an opinion. And sometimes, even the most well-intentioned outlets get it spectacularly wrong.

Case in point: Variety’s recent top 10 Best Actor predictions. We read it. We scratched our heads. We read it again. And we’re still trying to figure out how Jaafar Jackson, the man delivering the single most electrifying, transformative, flat-out unforgettable performance of the year, ended up at number seven. Behind Tom Cruise in a fat suit. Behind Matt Damon playing a Greek sailor. Behind John Turturro, whom we adore, but let’s be serious.

We’re not here to declare war on Variety. Not everyone is off their rocker over there. Owen Gleiberman himself called Jaafar’s work “electric” and praised how he captured Michael’s vocal evolution. So we know they see the talent. But ranking him seventh? That’s not a hot take, that’s a head-scratcher. It feels less like informed opinion and more like playing it safe with industry darlings. And since when did Decked Out ever play it safe?

Let’s break down why Jaafar Jackson isn’t just a contender, he’s the only logical choice, why that number-seven slot is a glaring miscalculation, and why any Oscar voter who checks a different name on that ballot needs to take a long, hard look in the mirror.

The Case for Jaafar Jackson

Let’s get one thing straight: Jaafar Jackson, in his feature-film debut, delivers a performance that makes seasoned veterans look like they’re sleepwalking. The Telegraph India called it bluntly: “It’s an Oscar-worthy performance.” They went further, noting that “there are moments where the line between actor and icon genuinely blurs. Jaafar captures not just the voice and the physicality, but the elusive aura of Jackson’s stage presence.”

This isn’t mimicry. This is embodiment. As one critic put it, “Jaafar Jackson was extraordinary. He embodied Michael whereas others merely imitated him.” Despite having no formal acting or dancing experience beforehand, Jaafar replicated his uncle’s signature moves, vocal cadence, and physicality with such striking authenticity that audiences forget they’re watching an actor. He reportedly danced constantly for two years to prepare for the demanding role. The “Bad” sequence alone demonstrates a command of physicality and presence that suggests a breakout moment.

And here’s the kicker: he does all this while the film itself sits at a 38% critics’ score on Rotten Tomatoes. The movie has been criticized for being a sanitized, one-note biopic. But guess what? The performance transcends the material. Critics have universally praised Jaafar even when panning the film, calling him “electric,” “a revelation,” and “phenomenal”. That’s the mark of a true Oscar-worthy performance: when you shine so bright that even a flawed film can’t dim your light.

Variety’s own Owen Gleiberman admitted: “Jaafar Jackson gets Michael’s tentative high sugary voice just right, but he also shows us how that famous personality evolves.” Yet somehow, they still rank him at #7? Make it make sense.

Decked Out’s Official Top 5 Best Actor Predictions

Here’s the correct ranking, as determined by taste, talent, and the undeniable truth:

1. Jaafar Jackson – Michael (Lionsgate)

This is the performance of the year, period. Jaafar doesn’t just play Michael Jackson, he becomes him. The physical transformation, the vocal precision, the emotional depth. This is Rami Malek in Bohemian Rhapsody territory, except Jaafar actually sings and dances. The Academy loves a transformative biopic performance, and Jaafar delivers one for the ages. Anything less than a win is a robbery.

2. John Turturro – The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (Sony Picture Classics)

We move Turturro up from #5 because his performance is a quiet masterclass. Variety called it “a mesmerizingly tender performance”. He plays an aging pickpocket in a digital world, delivering “one of the most quietly nuanced performances of his career”. It’s restrained, deeply human, and absolutely devastating. He deserves a spot near the top, but not the top.

3. Matt Damon – The Odyssey (Universal Pictures)

Yes, Damon is excellent as Odysseus. Early reactions praise his “career-best powerhouse performance”. But let’s be honest: this is Nolan’s spectacle, and Damon is along for the ride. He’s commanding, but he’s not transforming in the way Jaafar does.

4. Andrew Scott – Elsinore (Focus Features)

Scott is a phenomenal actor, and his portrayal of Ian Charleson has been called “astounding”. But this feels like a performance that will be remembered more for its prestige than its raw, gut-punching impact. Jaafar’s work is visceral in a way Scott’s isn’t.

5. Tom Cruise – Digger (Warner Bros.)

We respect the commitment. Cruise disappears beneath prosthetics, a pot belly, thinning white hair, and a Southern accent. It’s his most physically transformative role since Tropic Thunder. But transformation alone doesn’t win Oscars—Bohemian Rhapsody proved that heart and soul matter more than makeup. Cruise is having fun; Jaafar is living.

Why Any Other Choice Is Foolery

Let’s address the elephant in the room: the film itself isn’t perfect. We know. The critics have made that abundantly clear. On the other hand, it is the most entertaining musical biopic of all time with some of the all time great performances in a movie. But since when does a flawed film disqualify a transcendent performance? Bohemian Rhapsody was critically mixed and still won Rami Malek the Oscar. Elvis sidestepped uncomfortable truths and still landed eight nominations. The Academy has a long history of rewarding performances in imperfect biopics.

Jaafar Jackson delivers something rare: a performance that elevates a flawed film. He’s the reason to watch Michael. He’s the reason people are talking about it. He’s the reason audiences gave it a 97% approval rating even as critics panned it.

To rank him at #7, behind actors who are merely “very good” in their respective films, is to fundamentally misunderstand what makes an Oscar performance. It’s not about the size of the production or the prestige of the director. It’s about transformation. It’s about transcendence. It’s about making audiences forget they’re watching a performance at all.

Jaafar Jackson does all of that. In his first movie.

Final Verdict: Crown the King

So here’s our message to the Academy, to the pundits, to everyone who looked at Jaafar Jackson’s name and shrugged: Wake up. The man danced and sang for two years. He spent this time turning the art of acting into a masterclass. He channeled one of the most famous, most scrutinized, most discussed human beings in modern history, and he made us feel for him. Not because the script told us to, but because his eyes told us to. Because his trembling hands told us to. Because every single frame of his performance is dripping with more authenticity than most actors muster in a lifetime.

Variety can keep their list. They can keep their safe picks and their herd-mentality consensus. We’ll take the truth. And the truth is this: Jaafar Jackson is the Best Actor of 2026. Full stop. Anyone who says otherwise isn’t just wrong, they’re fooling themselves. And around here, we don’t suffer fools.

About the Author

Andrew Greene is a quality-obsessed, results-driven powerhouse with nearly two decades of experience transforming complexity into clear, actionable solutions. His secret weapon? A mix of analytical sharpness, problem-solving precision and a communication and leadership style that’s equal parts clarity and charisma. From Quality Assurance to political data analysis, you can think of him as the Swiss Army knife of operational excellence, minus the corkscrew (unless it’s a team celebration).