Clocking It: The Political Rundown — Halfway Clocked
If you filled up your tank in Wisconsin this week, you felt it. Parts of the state have seen prices touching $6 per gallon. The national average surged to $4.457 on Monday, with an eye-watering 35-cent jump in just one week. Drivers in California are now paying over $6.11 per gallon.
The frustration is real, the pain is widespread, and the blame game has begun in earnest. But as we ask how high can gas prices go and how fast?, we first need to address a fundamental question that most political talking points conveniently ignore: Does the president actually control gas prices?
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The Reality Check: What Presidents Actually Control
The short answer is no, not directly. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, gas prices are determined by four main factors: crude oil prices (the biggest driver by far), refining costs, distribution and marketing, and state and federal taxes. The president has no dial on his desk marked “lower gas prices.”
As one analysis from the National Association of Convenience Stores explained, “U.S. presidents have very little control over the price per gallon consumers pay at the pump.” Federal policies can nudge prices, but the overwhelming driver is global oil supply and demand, which responds to wars, pandemics, production decisions by OPEC+, and refinery capacity, not the occupant of the Oval Office.
When gas prices rose under President Biden, the cause was clear: the post-COVID economic recovery, a sharp reduction in refinery capacity during the pandemic, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Fact-checking organizations and energy analysts repeatedly noted that Biden had little to do with those price hikes. Yet the finger-pointing was relentless. “I did that” stickers with Biden’s face appeared on gas pumps across the nation.
Now those same stickers are being slapped on pumps with Donald Trump’s face. The reason isn’t complicated: the rules of political accountability cut both ways. But the key difference between Biden’s price spike and Trump’s is not the presence of the sticker. It’s what caused the spike.
The Biden Record: Blamed for Forces Beyond His Control
Let’s set the record straight. When Biden left office in January 2025, the national average gas price was $3.11 per gallon. That’s a significant drop from the inflation-fueled peaks of his term. The highest national average under Biden came in June 2022, when prices peaked at $5.01 per gallon in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which sent shockwaves through global energy markets.
Why were those prices so high under Biden?
· A global post-COVID demand surge that refineries couldn’t match
· Russia’s war on Ukraine — a geopolitical earthquake triggered by Vladimir Putin, not Joe Biden
· OPEC+ production cuts designed to keep prices elevated
· Refinery closures that began during the pandemic and reduced domestic capacity
Biden’s administration responded with record withdrawals from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, but even those moves, while providing some relief, were described as a “drop in the bucket” against world oil demand. In fact, Biden’s SPR releases functioned as a shock absorber for the global oil system. He handed his successor a strategic asset that, if managed wisely, could have been used to cushion future price shocks.
Instead, the man who spent years blaming Biden for high gas prices is now watching them soar under his own watch, and the cause is not a global pandemic or a foreign dictator’s war. It’s his own war.
The Trump War in Iran: A Self-Inflicted Wound
On February 28, 2026, Trump launched a war against Iran. Within weeks, Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which 20 percent of the world’s oil typically passes. The results at the pump have been devastating and entirely predictable.
Since the war began, the national average price of gas has jumped nearly 50 percent, rising from roughly $2.98 in late February to $4.46 per gallon today. But how high can gas prices go and how fast? The numbers are alarming. California has already hit $6.11 for regular unleaded. Diesel has soared to $5.62 on average in Wisconsin, and some parts of the country have seen diesel prices as high as $6.40. A total of six states now average above $5 per gallon.
Brent crude oil has surged to $119–$120 per barrel, prices not seen since the worst days of the Ukraine war. The CEO of Exxon Mobil warned this week that “the market hasn’t seen the full impact of that yet. There’s more to come”.
The difference between this price shock and the one under Biden could not be more stark. Under Biden, a war started by Russia, a war Biden opposed, sent prices soaring. Under Trump, a war started by the United States, a war Trump ordered, is sending prices soaring. One president was blamed for forces beyond his control. The other initiated the force that is now punishing American wallets.
Here is what the market is telling us about how fast prices are still climbing: Gas prices jumped 35 cents in a single week to start May. GasBuddy reported the largest weekly increases in the Great Lakes region, with Indiana spiking 83 cents, Ohio 78 cents, and Michigan 68 cents. Wisconsin still rose 45 cents. The median price at the top 10 percent of U.S. stations is now $5.77 per gallon.
The Forecast: How High Can Gas Prices Go?
The worst may not be over. In fact, analysts are warning that consumers have not yet seen the full impact of the crisis.
Exxon CEO Darren Woods told investors that “the market hasn’t seen the full impact of that yet” when asked about the war’s effect on global oil supply. “There’s more to come” if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, Woods added. Cheveron CEO Mike Wirth described the global energy system as “under extreme stress” and warned that if supply isn’t reestablished soon, “demand will have to come down across different sectors of the economy. That’s the big concern that everybody has”.
Even if the strait were reopened today, economists warn that relief would be slow. Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, estimates that Americans have already paid an additional $21.3 billion at the pump since the war began, and he said gas prices would likely not return to pre-conflict levels “even if the war ends soon.” Bob McNally of Rapidan Energy Group told Newsweek: “Even if the conflict and disruptions were to end today, the ripple effects would be felt for many months. Just restarting Gulf production and flows would take three to four months. Repairing damage to facilities could take longer.”
Trump’s own Energy Secretary, Chris Wright, admitted this week that gas prices may not drop back below $3 per gallon until 2027. That means the entire midterm election year will be fought under the cloud of elevated fuel prices, and every single one of those prices is a direct consequence of Trump’s decision to go to war.
As the Mirror reported, petrol prices are rising more in the US than in any other developed nation thanks to Trump’s Iran war. American drivers are paying 42% more for gas compared to before the war, while British drivers have been hit with a much smaller 19% increase.
The Political Reality: Polling Shows the Shift
Voters are already connecting the dots. A Quinnipiac University survey found that 65 percent of voters blame Trump “a lot” or “somewhat” for the increase in gas prices, including 51 percent who blame him “a lot”. That’s a remarkable figure for a president who once promised to bring prices down.
The irony is almost too perfect. Trump spent years blaming Biden for high prices that were largely beyond his control. He plastered “I did that” stickers on gas pumps and hammered the message relentlessly on the campaign trail. Now, the stickers are appearing with his own face on them. What goes around, as they say, comes around.
Halfway Clocked: The Tea
So, how high can gas prices go and how fast? The answer is that the ceiling remains unknown, but the trajectory is terrifying. With crude oil already above $120, with the Strait of Hormuz still effectively closed, with Exxon and Chevron warning that the worst is yet to come, and with Trump’s own Energy Secretary predicting prices above $3 through 2027, Americans could be looking at $5 gas as the new normal well before summer arrives, and for a long time.
The question Americans should be asking is not why gas prices are high, the cause is clear, and the cause is Trump’s war. The question is whether the same voters who blamed Biden for forces beyond his control will hold Trump accountable for a crisis he chose to create.
The biggest difference between then and now is simple: Trump walked into this mess with his eyes wide open, and American families are paying the price.
Halfway Clocked. That’s the tea.
Sources
· AAA Gas Prices data, May 4, 2026
· Wisconsin gas prices and Midwest increases
· California gas prices exceeding $6.11 per gallon
· National average $4.457, 35-cent weekly increase
· Gas prices up nearly 50% since Iran war began in late February
· GasBuddy CEO Patrick De Haan on record increases
· Brent crude at $119–$120 per barrel
· Exxon CEO Darren Woods warns “There’s more to come”
· Chevron CEO Mike Wirth on “extreme stress” to global energy
· Six states over $5 per gallon
· Mark Zandi: $21.3 billion extra paid at pump since war began
· Moody’s: Gas may not return to pre-conflict levels soon
· Bob McNally of Rapidan: Ripple effects for many months
· Energy Secretary Chris Wright: Prices may not drop below $3 until 2027
· The Mirror: US gas prices rising faster than any other developed nation
· “Does the President Control Gas Prices?” (NACS)
· Quinnipiac poll: 65% of voters blame Trump for gas price surge
About the Author
Andrew Greene is a quality-obsessed, results-driven powerhouse with nearly two decades of experience transforming complexity into clear, actionable solutions. His secret weapon? A mix of analytical sharpness, problem-solving precision and a communication and leadership style that’s equal parts clarity and charisma. From Quality Assurance to political data analysis, you can think of him as the Swiss Army knife of operational excellence, minus the corkscrew (unless it’s a team celebration).